تعرف على الاقتصاديات الأكثر بؤساً لعام 2017
موسوعة الاعجاز العلمي في القرآن والسنة
إذا كان عام 2016 هو عام الصدمات الاقتصادية، فعلى الأغلب سيكون عام 2017 هو عام الأزمات الاقتصادية!
هكذا وصف تقرير وكالة “Bloomberg” الإخبارية العالمية الوضع الاقتصادي الراهن، في تقريرها الأخير الصادر بمناسبة نشر نتائج مؤشرها للبؤس Bloomberg’s Misery Index لعام 2017.
ويتألف مؤشر البؤس بلومبرج 65 بلد، ويعتمد على جمع التوقعات لعاملين أساسيين، هما: معدلي التضخم والبطالة، وذلك في ظل صعوبة الحصول على وظيفة، وارتفاع أسعار السلع الأساسية والبضائع والمنتجات، والذي يُحسب وفقاً للمُعادلة التالية:
معدل البطالة + التغير في مؤشر أسعار المستهلكين = البؤس
فنزويلا الأتعس لهذا العام
تصدرت فنزويلا المركز الأول بين الدول الأكثر بؤساً فى العالم لهذا العام، وذلك للعام الثالث على التوالي، بمعدل تضخم بلغ 491.9% ومعدل بطالة بلغ 7.8%؛ بسبب المشاكل الاقتصادية والسياسية، من انخفاض أسعار النفط، والذى يعتبر أهم صادراتها على مدى سنوات، والتدهور الأمني، ومن ثم حالة عدم الاستقرار السياسى والاجتماعى والصحى، وما نتج عنه من أثار سيئة ترتب عنه انهيار اقتصادها.
يذكر أنّ فنزويلا لم تقدم أي بيانات اقتصادية منذ عام 2015، حيث أنّه منذ وفاة هوغو شافيز، وأصبحت فنزويلا الدولة المنتجة للنفط على مسار نحو التراجع، وبدأت تعاني من التضخم المفرط، نقص في الغذاء، وحروب أهلية جراء اليأس والغضب، انعكست آثارها برفوف مخازن الأغذية الفارغة، والمستشفيات الخالية من الأدوية، وتضاعف الجرائم العنيفة فى البلاد.
ولكن نجد أنّ مؤشر “Bloomberg’s Cafe Con Leche Index”، والذي يرصد حركة التضخم عن طريق قياس تكلفة فنجاناً من القهوة بين البلدان، تظهر ارتفاع الأسعار من 1،419% منذ منتصف أغسطس الماضي. لذا يقدر الاقتصاديون أنّ الأسعار سترتفع ستة أضعاف تقريبا خلال هذا العام، وفقاً لمتوسط تقديرات في استطلاع بلومبيرج.
منعطف نحو الأسوء
كما يُعانى عدد من دول أوروبا الوسطى والشرقية من تدهور اقتصادى كبير، وأبرزها بولندا، بعدما شهدت أكبر تحرك سلبي في التصنيف العالمي، حيث يتراجع اقتصادها إلى المرتبة الـ 28 بين أكثر الاقتصادات البائسة، بعدما كانت بالمركز الـ 45 بالعام الماضي على المؤشر الذي يضم 65 دولة.
وذلك على الرغم من أن بولندا شهدت تراجع مُطرد في معدل البطالة منذ اندلاع الأزمة المالية العالمية، بعدما ارتفع معدل التضخم إلى 1.8% في يناير الماضي، بعد أطول فترة انكماش في تاريخها على الاطلاق.
وتعانى دول أخرى فى وسط أوروبا من تدهور اقتصادى كبير، مثل: رومانيا، ولاتفيا، وسلوفاكيا، وأستونيا، جراء الزيادات في الأسعار، مما قادها لقفزات كبيرة في مؤشر بين البلدين.
فيما تعمقت حالة البؤس بالمكسيك وفقاً للمؤشر، فمن المتوقع أن يراجع ترتيبها من المركز الـ 38 بالعالم الماضي إلى المركز الـ 31 بعام 2017، كأكثر الدول بؤساً؛ بسبب زيادة معدل التضخم من 2.8% بالعالم الماضي، إلى 5% بالعالم الحالي؛ وذلك بسبب مزيج من الضغط على الأسعار، وتراجع الدعم الحكومي لأسعار الوقود، وتراجع البيزو أمام الدولار بمقدار 11% منذ الانتخابات الرئاسية الأمريكية في نوفمبر الماضي.
بينما تحركت المملكة المتحدة بواقع درجتين نحو مزيد من البؤس يأتي في أعقاب التصويت على الاستفتاء الشعبي لخروج بريطانيا من الاتحاد الاوروبي، والذي أدى لوصول الجنيه الاسترليني إلى أدنى مستوياته في أكثر من 30 عام، مما أدى إلى ارتفاع تكلفة الواردات، جنباً إلى جنب مع زيادة معدل التضخم. وكان نمو الأسعار قد تباطأ في المملكة المتحدة منذ أن انخفضت أسعار النفط في نهاية عام 2014.
تحسن ملحوظ
في حين أن كُل من النرويج وبيرو والصين، تخطو خطوات لا بأس بها لتصبح أقل بؤساً، فنجد أنّ المشاكل الاقتصادية للنرويج أصبحت أقل، بسبب انخفاض الاستهلاك هذا العام، مما أتاح للبلد مجال لتحسين الأداء المتوسط عن العام الماضي، فأصبحت أقل بؤساً بـ 18 نقاط. ويرى اقتصاديون أنّ الفضل في ذلك يعود لتراجع الإنفاق على النفط في عام 2017 وانخفاض معدل البطالة بنحو 4.8%.
جدير بالذكر أنّ اقتصاد بيرو قد شهد تقدماً ملحوظاً جداً بتقدمه 13 نقطة نحو الاقتصاديات الأكثر سعادة هذا العام، كما يرى اقتصاديون أنّ هُناك مزيد من التحسن في الاستثمار والتجارة في الأفق.
فيما كانت هونج كونج، وكوريا الجنوبية، وتايوان، وهولندا، والصين، والإكوادور، وروسيا من أفضل الدول على المؤشر فيما تراجع مركز جنوب أفريقيا، واليونان، وتركيا بشكل ملحوظ. بينما كانت تايلاند أقل بلد بائس لعام 2017.
وإليكم التصنيف كاملاً للبلدان الـ 65 على مؤشر البؤس Misery Index لعام 2017:
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