Le FMI table sur une inflation de 7,4% en 2018
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Le Fonds monétaire international (FMI) relève ses projections concernant le taux d’inflation en Algérie en 2018, tablant sur un taux de 7,4% cette année contre une estimation initiale de 4,4%. Le FMI, qui a publié vendredi sur son site un communiqué à l’issue de son évaluation de l’économie algérienne, établie au titre de l’article IV, projette en outre un taux d’inflation à hauteur de 7,6% en 2019, soulignant que «la politique monétaire de l’Algérie doit être indépendante et viser à maîtriser l’inflation». A cet égard, selon les administrateurs du FMI, les autorités algériennes doivent «se tenir prêtes à durcir la politique monétaire si des tensions inflationnistes se manifestent. Ils déconseillent le financement monétaire du déficit, mais si celui-ci se poursuit, ils soulignent la nécessité de mettre en place des mesures de sauvegarde pour en atténuer l’impact négatif, dont des limites temporelles et quantitatives». Dans ce contexte, «ils saluent l’engagement de la Banque centrale à stériliser, le cas échéant, les liquidités apportées par le financement monétaire». Le FMI prend bonne note du dosage de mesures prévu par les autorités, à savoir «une augmentation des dépenses budgétaires en 2018 suivie par la reprise de l’assainissement des finances publiques à moyen terme, le financement monétaire des déficits budgétaires, des restrictions temporaires aux importations, ainsi que des réformes structurelles visant à diversifier l’économie». Pour le FMI, «bien que certains administrateurs comprennent le choix des autorités, la plupart estiment que cette approche pourrait certes offrir un répit à l’économie à court terme, mais également faire peser des risques considérables sur les perspectives économiques. Ils soulignent que cette approche aura comme conséquence probable d’exacerber les déséquilibres budgétaires et extérieurs, d’alimenter l’inflation, d’accélérer la diminution des réserves de change, d’aggraver les risques pour la stabilité financière et, en fin de compte, de ralentir la croissance». Le FMI recommande «une approche susceptible de donner de meilleurs résultats tout en étant plus viable». Le FMI prône encore le recours à l’emprunt extérieur Selon le communiqué, les administrateurs de l’institution «conviennent dans l’ensemble qu’il serait possible de mener un assainissement progressif des finances publiques dès 2018, sans recourir au financement par la Banque centrale, mais en s’appuyant sur une variété de mécanismes de financement, dont l’emprunt extérieur pour financer des projets d’investissement sélectionnés avec soin. Une dépréciation progressive du taux de change, accompagnée de mesures visant à éliminer le marché des changes parallèle, favoriserait les mesures d’ajustement». Par ailleurs, les administrateurs du FMI, poursuit le communiqué, souscrivent aux efforts visant à mobiliser davantage de recettes hors hydrocarbures, à améliorer l’efficience et la gestion des dépenses publiques, ainsi qu’à élargir les réformes des subventions tout en protégeant les populations pauvres. Ils saluent l’intention des autorités d’appliquer des réformes visant à encourager le développement du secteur privé en améliorant le climat des affaires, en facilitant l’accès au crédit, ainsi qu’en renforçant la gouvernance, la transparence et la concurrence. Les administrateurs estiment également utile d’agir pour réduire l’inadéquation des qualifications, améliorer le fonctionnement du marché du travail, accroître le taux d’activité des femmes et continuer d’ouvrir l’économie au commerce extérieur et à l’investissement direct étranger. Dans le communiqué rendu public à Washington, le FMI estime qu’«en dépit d’un assainissement considérable des finances publiques en 2017, les déficits budgétaire et courant demeurent élevés». Pour l’institution financière, «la croissance du PIB réel a fortement ralenti en raison principalement d’une contraction de la production d’hydrocarbures, même si la croissance du secteur hors hydrocarbures est restée stable». Selon le FMI, «le chômage s’est hissé à 11,7% en septembre 2017, contre 10,5% un an plus tôt, et reste particulièrement élevé chez les jeunes (28,3%) et les femmes (20,7%). Le taux d’inflation moyen s’est établi à 5,6%, contre 6,4% en 2016, du fait du ralentissement de l’inflation pour les produits manufacturés et les services, et il était de 3,4% en glissement annuel en avril 2018». Par ailleurs, le FMI souligne que «si les réserves restent abondantes, elles ont diminué de 17 milliards de dollars, pour s’établir à 96 milliards de dollars (hors DTS). La dette extérieure reste négligeable, mais la dette publique intérieure a considérablement augmenté depuis 2016, tout en demeurant modérée», ajoute le FMI. Celui-ci note enfin que le secteur bancaire continue de se porter relativement bien. Il souligne que, eu égard aux risques macroéconomiques et aux liens financiers au sein du secteur public, il convient de renforcer le cadre macroprudentiel, notamment en menant plus régulièrement des tests de résistance et en établissant un dispositif de gestion des crises.
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